CIVICUS discusses the results of recent Mexican elections with Daniela Arias Sánchez, Coordinator of the Election Lab of Mexico, an independent think tank dedicated to research, reflection and analysis on issues related to elections and democracy in Latin America.
Following one of the most violent election campaigns in its history, Mexico is preparing for a change of government. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum won with close to 60 per cent of the vote but faces challenging prospects. Under her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico experienced an alarming rise in violence, and particularly political violence that claimed the lives of several candidates and public officials during the campaign.
What factors contributed to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory?
Sheinbaum’s remarkable victory is explained both by the government’s ability to channel public discontent and an inadequate interpretation of the situation by the opposition. During the six years of the current government, opposition coalition parties have had several opportunities to renew their strategy and programme. However, the local victories they won between 2021 and 2023 led them to underestimate their need for change. These victories, which included only five governorships out of 23 contested, along with limited gains in Congress, led them to mistakenly believe their strategy would be enough to win.
The opposition coalition opted for recycling candidates with questionable records and put forward proposals that didn’t differ significantly from those that had failed in the past. The campaign of Xóchitl Gálvez, the main opposition challenger, which initially gained momentum thanks to President López Obrador’s accusations, focused on criticising the government rather than offering a clear alternative.
The other contender, Citizen Movement, tried to position itself as a third way, but its efforts were hampered by miscalculations in the initial nomination of its candidate and the subsequent appointment of Jorge Maynez, who ran an overly social media-centric campaign.
In contrast, the triumphant Morena party and its allies ran a unified campaign, backed by the president’s explicit support. Despite over 30 precautionary measures imposed on him by the National Electoral Institute for interfering in the electoral process, López Obrador openly called for a vote for Sheinbaum and other coalition candidates, seeking to secure a qualified majority to pass key changes.
How did the high level of political violence affect the election?
The government underestimated political violence, even though our preliminary calculations put governing coalition politicians at the top of the death toll. The federal government published official figures that minimised the number of victims, while our monitoring recorded 338 assaults and several election-related murders.
The impact of this violence was particularly evident in states such as Chiapas, Guerrero and Michoacán, where violence against candidates of all parties prevented elections taking place or led to parties not participating, particularly in municipal elections. This left several posts vacant, affecting areas already highly vulnerable to the influence of organised crime groups.
Our second preliminary report highlighted cases where electoral authorities cancelled or invalidated elections due to violence. Violence is having a profound impact on Mexican democracy, but because it occurs at such a local level, it can go unnoticed.
How does the president-elect’s agenda differ from her predecessor’s?
Sheinbaum has shown some differences with López Obrador, although she has also promised continuity in some respects. After the elections, once certain she will have a qualified majority, she has set up forums and consultations to discuss constitutional changes. However, there is still scepticism about whether differing opinions will be taken into account or whether the original plans will be retained following the forums, as has been the case in the past.
Similarly, although Sheinbaum has appointed officials with technical and specialised backgrounds in some secretariats, she has also been criticised for appointments that appear to be in return for political favours.
On security matters, Sheinbaum appears to be sticking to her predecessor’s approach, stating her intention to keep the National Guard under the supervision of the Ministry of National Defence. The question is how the government will address continuing security challenges and whether it will explore new strategies to improve the effectiveness and transparency of this key institution.
What does civil society expect of the new government?
Civil society expects the new government to be more receptive and open to dialogue with parts of society that have had limited access so far. Given the profiles of the cabinet members already announced, a greater willingness to work with civil society and consider its input is to be expected.
However, doubts remain about the future of autonomous constitutional bodies such as the National Human Rights Commission, the National Institute for Access to Information and the National Electoral Institute, which have been weakened in recent years. There are concerns that austerity measures could lead to further budget cuts in these bodies, which are crucial to maintaining a balance of powers.
To improve the quality of civic space and democracy, it’s essential for the government to value diversity of opinion, encourage cooperation and strengthen institutional checks and balances.
Civic space in Mexico is rated ‘repressed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
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