Changing the climate forecast for ecosystems and livelihoods
By Valli Moosa, President, World Conservation Union (IUCN)

IUCN perspective before the conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, COP 13/CMP3) to be held in Bali, 3-14 December 2007

- Submitted by Elise Buckle, elise.buckle@iucn.org

The World Conservation Union , IUCN would like to stress the urgency of moving forward to reach a new global agreement on climate change. New and greater commitments are needed for the period after 2012 to build trust among the international community, orient public and private investments towards long-term objectives, and above all to face an unprecedented environmental threat.  

Biodiversity extinction crisis  

Last September, IUCN released its 2007 Red List of Threatened Species and the news was very clear: the world is facing a global biodiversity extinction crisis.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concurs, noting in their Assessment Reports that the global temperature increase of 0.6°C which occurred in the 20th century had an impact on more than 400 plants and animals. A recent study estimated that 15-37% of regional endemic species could be extinct by 2050[1].  

Environmental refugees  

According to Professor Norman Myers from Oxford University , climate change could displace 50 million people by 2010 and 200 million by 2050[2]. Poor and vulnerable communities, including indigenous people and women, will be the most severely affected by climate change.  

Turning the vicious circle into a virtuous circle  

There is an urgent need to limit greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will not contribute further to this biodiversity loss, which, through compromise of ecosystem services, will also threaten livelihoods. At the same time, addressing biodiversity and equity concerns also create opportunities to improve the better mitigate and adapt to climate change.  

Beyond Kyoto  

For the 13^th Conference of Parties of the UNFCC, IUCN will be urging the Parties to agree on a strong mandate to negotiate a comprehensive and equitable post- 2012 regime by 2009, allowing enough time for all the countries to ratify the new regime before the end of the first 2008-2012 commitment period. Such regime should aim at achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention (Article 2) “to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner”; it should address all aspects of mitigation, adaptation, technology and finance.  

Concerning mitigation, there is a need for stronger emission reduction commitments from developed countries. Voluntary measurable action by developing countries is also needed, based on gradual strengthening of capacity and provision of incentives. Emissions reduction targets should be consistent with the urgent need to limit global warming to maximum increase of temperature of +2°C, compared to pre-industrial level.  

Stressing the link between climate change, biodiversity and equity, IUCN also urges the Parties to strengthen the synergies with other relevant multilateral agreements, especially the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, and with the Millennium Development Goals.  

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (REDD)  

According to the Hadley Research Center, deforestation and land-use changes represent up to one third of total green house gas emissions. A tragic example of the this is the forest fires caused by El Niño effect in Indonesia in 1997-1998, which emitted up to 2,5 Gt of carbon into the atmosphere, an amount equivalent to what the European Union emitted in one year[3].

Moreover, while the rural poor depend heavily on forests, poverty has also been identified as a driver of deforestation.  

To address these challenges, IUCN will recommend the Parties to integrate REDD into a post-2012 agreement within a framework that:  

Ø     Is based on an ecosystem approach taking into account the multiple functions and benefits of forests for biodiversity values, ecosystem functioning and local livelihoods, protecting existing forests and restoring degraded ecosystems.

Ø     Includes equitable participation of local level stakeholders to ensure that social equity, gender, land-use rights and tenure and poverty reduction are addressed, with positive incentives and benefit-sharing mechanisms.

Ø     Is integrated into a broader strategy focused on securing deeper reductions of emissions from the use of fossil fuels rather than simply offsetting carbon emissions.

Ø     Is designed to reinforce ongoing forest governance reforms.

Ø     Includes sufficient and diverse financial resources for developing countries, including capacity building for forest-dependent communities.  

Ensuring that biofuels are ecologically and socially sustainable

The development of biofuels, particularly those involving deforestation or land degradation, can result in increased greenhouse gas emissions as well as severe consequences for biodiversity and livelihoods. IUCN will thus recommend that Parties use robust sustainability criteria for biofuels as a safeguard against any associated negative environmental and social impacts.  

Enhancing the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change  

Biodiversity supports ecosystem resilience which, through enhanced adaptability to a changing environment, will better buffer against climate change. There is a strong need for better assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems and for bridging the gap between scientists and resource managers to promote ways to enhance ecosystem resilience.  

Reducing the vulnerability of the poor and funding adaptation  

Rural poor, disadvantaged communities and women are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In Bali, IUCN will be pushing for the implementation of practical adaptation activities with appropriate funding and technologies. An effective and transparent Adaptation Fund should be set up with a governance structure that reflects the principles of equity, differentiated responsibility and capability, balanced representation and accountability. While the Adaptation Fund is expected to be financed initially through a 2% levy on carbon credits generated under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), additional innovative finance mechanisms will be needed to finance the Adaptation Fund at a much higher level.

Finally, while women are severely affected by climate change but they are also powerful agents of change and gender should be mainstreamed into all mitigation and adaptation measures.

To conclude, the Bali meeting represents an important political momentum for reaching a post-2012 agreement that responds to the seriousness of climate change. Nature and the people that depend on it deserve no less, and this opportunity should not be missed.

For more information e-mail at climate@iucn.org or visit the website at www.iucn.org/themes/climate. 

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